The dual disruption of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb is tightening global oil flows, raising transport costs and fueling expectations of $100 oil. Friday, July 24, 2026 The double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb has turbo-boosted oil prices this week, with both ICE Brent and WTI gaining $10 per barrel on the week. Whilst technically the Bab el-Mandeb could be bypassed through the Suez Canal, resulting in longer routes and higher costs, the dramatic decline in transits via the Hormuz should be of particular worry to the oil markets.…
Refining & Products Context
Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.
Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.
What to Watch
Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.
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