Commodities Beat Tech This Decade, and Wall Street Still Won't Buy In

The best performing asset class of this decade is also the most under owned. Since October 2020, when we first called for a decades-long super-cycle in commodities, the broad commodity indices like the S&P GSCI are up 200 per cent; gold 140 per cent. This year commodities are up 37 per cent with petroleum up 81 per cent. The bottlenecks rotated – gold, copper, silver, coffee, cocoa, oil and most recently diesel.

But not the trend. In contrast, crypto indices are up 157 per cent, the Nasdaq 145 per cent and the S&P 500 117 per cent.…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.