Washington's Plan to Neutralize Iran’s Hormuz Leverage

For decades, Iran has relied on the Strait of Hormuz as its most effective geopolitical weapon -- a crucial energy chokepoint through which up to a third of the world’s oil is transported and about a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG). Tehran’s immediate blockade of the transit route at the onset of the 28 February U.S./Israeli joint military operation against Iran prompted a cessation of maritime traffic through the chokepoint, catalysing a spike in oil prices of over 70%. The prospect of such a blockade continuing into the U.S.’s…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.