Washington Needs This LNG Deal More Than Beijing Does

Xi Jinping arrives in Washington September 24, prepared to discuss reviving a $6 billion-a-year trade in US liquefied natural gas, contingent on lifting a 15% Chinese tariff that has blocked American gas since Q1 2025. Iranian missiles destroyed 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity in March, and China absorbed that shock by buying more from everyone except the United States: Australia took 36% of its LNG imports from January through July, Southeast Asia 20%, Russia 12%, and Canada, a new entrant, 4%, according to Banchero Costa data. American cargoes…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.