Venezuela Oil Output Could Hit 1.8 Million Bpd By 2030, Rystad Says

Venezuela’s upstream oil sector is attracting its broadest pool of international operators and capital in decades, with established majors expanding their footprints and new operators entering under revised contractual frameworks. If capital deployment, rig availability and oilfield services scale in line with requirements, Rystad Energy models Venezuelan crude production reaching around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030. The roster of companies now actively looking to expand or operate in Venezuela is…

Industry Background

Upstream activity across major producing basins continues to reflect the balance between capital discipline and the operational pressures of sustaining output. U.S. shale plays — particularly the Permian Basin — remain the swing producer of last resort in global markets, with rig count data serving as a leading indicator for future production volumes.

Exploration and production companies are increasingly focusing on high-return, low-breakeven assets, prioritizing inventory depth in proven basins over frontier exploration spending as investor expectations for free cash flow generation remain elevated.

What to Watch

Market participants will be monitoring rig count trends, quarterly earnings guidance from major E&P operators, and any production adjustment announcements from OPEC+ members for signals on near-term supply trajectory.