U.S. refineries have been running at full speed for months to make up for lost fuel supply from the Middle East. Fuel exports from the United States have been breaking records. This may be about to change, and not because of the war.
It is oil sands maintenance season in Canada. In September, Canadian crude oil production may drop by 300,000 barrels daily due to maintenance activities in the oil sands, Rystad Energy said this week, as quoted by Bloomberg. Usually, whenever such a seasonal disruption occurs, it gets offset with crude from storage.…
Refining & Products Context
Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.
Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.
What to Watch
Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.
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