The U.S. Is Quietly Building a New Energy Foothold in Iraq

There have been perhaps a handful of events since the end of the Second World War that have fundamentally reshaped the world’s oil markets and consequently its geopolitics while remaining largely unnoticed at the time. The quiet agreement between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud struck on 14 February 1945 that would define the energy, economic, political and military relationship between the two countries until the rise of American shale in the early 2010s is one, as analysed in my latest…

Industry Background

Upstream activity across major producing basins continues to reflect the balance between capital discipline and the operational pressures of sustaining output. U.S. shale plays — particularly the Permian Basin — remain the swing producer of last resort in global markets, with rig count data serving as a leading indicator for future production volumes.

Exploration and production companies are increasingly focusing on high-return, low-breakeven assets, prioritizing inventory depth in proven basins over frontier exploration spending as investor expectations for free cash flow generation remain elevated.

What to Watch

Market participants will be monitoring rig count trends, quarterly earnings guidance from major E&P operators, and any production adjustment announcements from OPEC+ members for signals on near-term supply trajectory.