The Diesel Demand Shock Nobody Is Pricing In

The Truck Exception Isn't as Big as You Think When I recently argued that the internal combustion engine may already have passed its peak, many readers responded with a familiar objection. Cars are one thing, they argued, but trucks are different. Passenger vehicles can be electrified because they drive predictable distances, return home every evening, and increasingly benefit from lower operating costs. Long-haul trucking, by contrast, depends on heavy payloads, long distances, and energy densities that batteries supposedly cannot provide.

While…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.