Stranded Middle East LNG Supply Upends Gas Markets

The LNG supply out of the Middle East has not recovered in any meaningful way seven and a half months after the Iran war choked oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, some occasional LNG cargoes have managed to squeeze through the chokepoint where a fifth of global liquefied Natural Gas supplies passed before the war. The rare shipments are not making much of a difference in the global gas market, which suddenly found itself without a fifth of daily LNG supplies and whose second-largest producer, Qatar, is now barely moving…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.