Standard Chartered Says Hormuz Oil Flows Are Far From Normal

Oil flows through the Middle East have staged an impressive rebound, with export volumes recovering to near pre-war levels even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal. Standard Chartered estimates crude and condensate exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran and including bypass routes such as Fujairah and the Red Sea, reached roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, broadly back to pre-war volumes. But only 60% of those barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 83% before the war. Standard Chartered…

Market Context

Global crude oil markets remain sensitive to a combination of macroeconomic signals, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments across key producing regions. Brent crude and WTI serve as the primary price benchmarks, with spread movements reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and refinery demand shifts.

Energy traders and analysts closely monitor inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which releases weekly petroleum status reports that frequently move markets. Rising inventories typically signal demand weakness or oversupply, while draws support price recovery.

What to Watch

Analysts and traders will be watching upcoming EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ output decisions, and macroeconomic indicators — particularly U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and China demand data — for directional cues on crude prices in the near term.