Crude oil prices ended the second quarter of the year with the steepest decline since 2020, with Brent shedding close to 40% on optimism about a peace deal between the United States and Iran. But it may be too early to celebrate, ING commodity strategists said today. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still far from pre-war levels, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote, adding that “Total tanker crossings, which include both inbound and outbound movements, are estimated at around 11 on Tuesday, down from a peak of 24 last Wednesday.”…
Market Context
Global crude oil markets remain sensitive to a combination of macroeconomic signals, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments across key producing regions. Brent crude and WTI serve as the primary price benchmarks, with spread movements reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and refinery demand shifts.
Energy traders and analysts closely monitor inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which releases weekly petroleum status reports that frequently move markets. Rising inventories typically signal demand weakness or oversupply, while draws support price recovery.
What to Watch
Analysts and traders will be watching upcoming EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ output decisions, and macroeconomic indicators — particularly U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and China demand data — for directional cues on crude prices in the near term.
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