Nigeria’s Oil Production Hits Six-Year High as Middle East Risks Return

Nigeria’s crude oil production hit a six-year high in June, as operations continued to stabilize and no major outage incidents occurred, just as the new flare-up in Iran threatens flows through the Strait of Hormuz again. Nigeria pumped 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last month, the largest average monthly production volume since April 2020, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). Total crude oil and condensate production rose for the fourth consecutive month to 1.735 million…

Industry Background

Upstream activity across major producing basins continues to reflect the balance between capital discipline and the operational pressures of sustaining output. U.S. shale plays — particularly the Permian Basin — remain the swing producer of last resort in global markets, with rig count data serving as a leading indicator for future production volumes.

Exploration and production companies are increasingly focusing on high-return, low-breakeven assets, prioritizing inventory depth in proven basins over frontier exploration spending as investor expectations for free cash flow generation remain elevated.

What to Watch

Market participants will be monitoring rig count trends, quarterly earnings guidance from major E&P operators, and any production adjustment announcements from OPEC+ members for signals on near-term supply trajectory.