Morgan Stanley: Diesel Export Ban Would Push U.S. Gas Prices Higher

U.S. gasoline prices will spike further if the Trump Administration bans diesel exports, Morgan Stanley analysts say, as restrictions remain a debate amid record-high diesel prices in America. “A diesel export ban could have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if US refiners cut runs,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg. A ban on diesel exports would force U.S.

refiners to cut refinery utilization rates because they would run out of storage for the diesel within just a few…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.