Morgan Stanley has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 month as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut. The return of oil supply from the Middle East, combined with high U.S. oil exports and still weak Chinese crude purchases, will bring the market full-circle to a new glut in the coming months, according to the bank’s analysts, who slashed their oil price projections for the second time in two weeks. Morgan Stanley now expects Dated Brent to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter…
Market Context
Global crude oil markets remain sensitive to a combination of macroeconomic signals, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments across key producing regions. Brent crude and WTI serve as the primary price benchmarks, with spread movements reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and refinery demand shifts.
Energy traders and analysts closely monitor inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which releases weekly petroleum status reports that frequently move markets. Rising inventories typically signal demand weakness or oversupply, while draws support price recovery.
What to Watch
Analysts and traders will be watching upcoming EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ output decisions, and macroeconomic indicators — particularly U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and China demand data — for directional cues on crude prices in the near term.
Read original article at OilPrice.com