Mexico Has More Refining Capacity. So Why Are Fuel Imports Rising?

Mexico’s push for fuel self-sufficiency has run into a stubborn problem: Pemex has built and upgraded refining capacity faster than it has learned to operate it reliably. The state oil company is being asked to send more crude into domestic refineries and less onto the export market, a strategy that looks increasingly sensible when refined products’ cracks are strong. But the second quarter of 2026 showed the weakness of that model. Mexican refineries processed only around 1 million b/d (58% of installed capacity), while fuel imports…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.