Kpler estimates Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September and exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million bpd on several days during the final week of the month. That recovery has done surprisingly little to bring oil prices back down, as we noted earlier this week. Producers are moving more crude through alternative pipelines and ports, while tankers moving through Hormuz increasingly rely on U.S. military escorts and vessel-intensive chains of ship-to-ship (STS) transfers.
Brent crude…
Market Context
Global crude oil markets remain sensitive to a combination of macroeconomic signals, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments across key producing regions. Brent crude and WTI serve as the primary price benchmarks, with spread movements reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and refinery demand shifts.
Energy traders and analysts closely monitor inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which releases weekly petroleum status reports that frequently move markets. Rising inventories typically signal demand weakness or oversupply, while draws support price recovery.
What to Watch
Analysts and traders will be watching upcoming EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ output decisions, and macroeconomic indicators — particularly U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and China demand data — for directional cues on crude prices in the near term.
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