Crude oil exports from the Middle East have recovered almost fully to pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan, which also said fuel exports were ramping up. The bank’s analysts saw September daily oil flows at an average of 17.5 million barrels daily, or 98% of pre-war levels, with fuel exports at 3 million barrels daily, or 58% of pre-war daily average levels, Bloomberg reported, citing JP Morgan’s commodity analysts. “The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” the team said in a note Thursday. This…
Refining & Products Context
Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.
Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.
What to Watch
Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.
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