Inside Putin’s $135 Billion Arctic Gamble That Could Save His Ukraine War

Back in early February 2022, Vladimir Putin had his first in-person meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for nearly two years, at the opening of the Winter Olympics ceremony in Beijing. To avoid disrupting this landmark event for Xi and to allow China to finalise the multiple hoarding deals for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in which it had been engaged over the previous year, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, Putin had delayed the imminent invasion of Ukraine. At that meeting,…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.