Hormuz LNG Flows Still Down More Than 75% Despite Rebound

LNG traffic at the Strait of Hormuz appears to be ticking up despite increased threats to shipments in the chokepoint in recent days. At least three LNG carriers have transited the Strait of Hormuz outbound since the end of last week, tanker-traffic data compiled by Bloomberg and Kpler showed on Monday. The increase in LNG shipments extends the rebound in transits in September, but the flows of liquefied natural gas remain over 75% below the levels seen before the Iran war. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which is affiliated with the Royal…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.