Goldman Sachs: Europe Needs Much Higher Gas Prices to Secure Winter Supply

Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for the coming winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps spot LNG prices in Asia elevated, according to Goldman Sachs. Since the Middle East crisis began, Europe has started losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply amid spiking prices in the absence of most Qatari LNG term volumes. The Iran war and the intensified competition from Asia came just as Europe is trying to build in the spring and summer natural gas inventories…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.