Energy stocks have rallied this year as oil prices soared amid the Middle East conflict. The U.S. supermajors ExxonMobil and Chevron have seen their stocks gain about 40% each so far in 2026, but U.S. refiner stocks have outperformed the majors because the global fuel market is much tighter than crude oil markets.
The share prices of Phillips 66 (PSX:NYSE), Valero Energy (VLO:NYSE), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC:NYSE) have more than doubled this year, as fuel markets are tightening with more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of refined product…
Refining & Products Context
Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.
Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.
What to Watch
Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.
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