Global Fuel Oil Shortage Deepens as Middle East and Russia Supplies Collapse

Global fuel oil supply is shrinking while demand for the fuel from the shipping industry remains robust, suggesting further supply pain down the road. Exports of high-sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East are running at a rate that is at least 800,000 tons a month lower than it was before the war, the head of Asian operations at Vitol said at an industry event. “Producers are paying higher freight rates and more risk premiums to shuttle cargoes out of Hormuz, recognising the importance of oil revenues to their national budgets,” Kieran…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.