Global Biofuels Output Could Surge 70% Amid Energy Crisis

Global biofuels production is projected to surge by nearly 70% by 2030 as major producing countries raise their fuel-blending mandates in response to the energy crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict, a study co-authored by British think tank Chatham House and Forest Stewardship Council has found. Biofuels like ethanol, which typically originate from food crops or animal feed and are mixed with gasoline or diesel, become more cost-competitive as crude oil and gasoline prices spike. Several countries, including the U.S., the EU, Brazil,…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.