Fuel Price Shock Pushes Global Gas Car Sales Below 50% for First Time

The share of gasoline cars in global vehicle sales fell below 50% for the first time ever as the Hormuz shock and the resulting record-high fuel prices accelerated the previously sluggish shift toward EVs outside China. A few years ago, China blew past the threshold of 50% of all car sales being hybrids and EVs, and the share is now about 55%. But the rest of the world didn’t follow until the Iran war disrupted the fuel markets. Global sales shares of EVs are far from the Chinese numbers, but the shift toward electric vehicles has been remarkably…

Refining & Products Context

Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.

Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.

What to Watch

Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.