Fear of an Oil Glut May Be Overblown, Top Consultancy Says

Up to 75% of the previous oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to return to the market by the end of the year, but significantly lower oil prices aren’t guaranteed for 2027 as the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions are unlikely to be resolved for good soon, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of FGE NexantECA, told CNBC on Monday. Before the Iran war, the consultancy FGE NexantECA expected oil prices to be in the upper $50s low $60s per barrel next year. This could still be the case in 2027, but it rests on the assumption that a…

Market Context

Global crude oil markets remain sensitive to a combination of macroeconomic signals, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments across key producing regions. Brent crude and WTI serve as the primary price benchmarks, with spread movements reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and refinery demand shifts.

Energy traders and analysts closely monitor inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which releases weekly petroleum status reports that frequently move markets. Rising inventories typically signal demand weakness or oversupply, while draws support price recovery.

What to Watch

Analysts and traders will be watching upcoming EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ output decisions, and macroeconomic indicators — particularly U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and China demand data — for directional cues on crude prices in the near term.