Europe’s Gas Forecasts Are Not an Energy Strategy

Energy models have an unusual talent. However chaotic the present may be, the future almost always becomes remarkably calm. Wars end. Shipping lanes reopen.

LNG terminals work as planned. Winters remain manageable. Producers deliver. Markets rebalance. And natural gas prices gradually return to a smooth, comfortable line. Perhaps they will. But Europe has now spent five years discovering how little it actually knows about future gas prices. The latest Dutch Climate and Energy Outlook illustrates the problem. The KEV 2026 uses a central wholesale…

LNG Market Background

The global LNG market has undergone a structural transformation in recent years, with U.S. exports reshaping trade flows and providing consuming nations with greater supply optionality. European buyers have accelerated long-term LNG contracting following the disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies.

New LNG liquefaction capacity — from the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar's North Field expansion, and Australian projects — is expected to add significant supply volumes through the late 2020s, with implications for long-term contract pricing and spot market dynamics.

What to Watch

Stakeholders will be tracking spot LNG cargo pricing in Asian and European markets, liquefaction plant utilization rates, and upcoming long-term supply contract negotiations as global LNG trade flows continue to evolve.