Elevated US gasoline and electricity prices are seeping into the upcoming midterm elections in November. Candidates are prioritizing consumer affordability over the environment, with Democrats linking gas price increases to President Trump’s foreign policy decisions. Meanwhile, a debate over data center expansion and consumer rate impacts are forcing candidates to address infrastructure investment trade-offs. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, US residential electricity prices rose 7% in 2025 versus 2024.
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Refining & Products Context
Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.
Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.
What to Watch
Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.
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