Colombia's Oil and Gas Reserves Keep Shrinking

For a decade, Colombia's economically vital oil industry has been caught in a death spiral. A combination of sharply weaker oil prices, rising geopolitical risk and anti-petroleum industry reforms implemented by Colombia's first leftist president Gustavo Petro deterred investment, causing the operational tempo to decline. The main issue weighing heavily on the oil patch's outlook is a dire lack of proven petroleum reserves. These are the result of a lack of spending on wildcat drilling and a poor exploration success rate.

After a lengthy delay,…

Industry Background

Upstream activity across major producing basins continues to reflect the balance between capital discipline and the operational pressures of sustaining output. U.S. shale plays — particularly the Permian Basin — remain the swing producer of last resort in global markets, with rig count data serving as a leading indicator for future production volumes.

Exploration and production companies are increasingly focusing on high-return, low-breakeven assets, prioritizing inventory depth in proven basins over frontier exploration spending as investor expectations for free cash flow generation remain elevated.

What to Watch

Market participants will be monitoring rig count trends, quarterly earnings guidance from major E&P operators, and any production adjustment announcements from OPEC+ members for signals on near-term supply trajectory.