Bank of America (BoFA) is warning that oil prices could continue climbing into the winter if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach an agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with severe shortages already emerging in diesel, gasoline and global natural gas markets. “We’ve been expecting oil to be in the $70 to $80 a barrel range for Brent on the assumption that we were going to see some resolution,” Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivatives research, told CNBC on Monday. “But if we don’t,…
Refining & Products Context
Downstream margins — or crack spreads — have experienced considerable volatility as refinery operators navigate feedstock cost fluctuations, product demand seasonality, and evolving fuel specifications. Gasoline and distillate margins serve as key profitability levers for integrated refiners.
Refinery utilization rates, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest European hubs, directly influence product availability and pricing. Unplanned outages, scheduled turnarounds, and weather-related disruptions are recurring factors that tighten regional product supply.
What to Watch
Key metrics to watch include refinery utilization rates, weekly distillate inventory builds or draws, and crack spread movements, which serve as real-time indicators of refining profitability across major processing hubs.
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