Analysts Still Expect USA-Iran Deal by End-September

Analysts at BMI revealed that their base case still assumes a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the third quarter.

Industry Background

Upstream activity across major producing basins continues to reflect the balance between capital discipline and the operational pressures of sustaining output. U.S. shale plays — particularly the Permian Basin — remain the swing producer of last resort in global markets, with rig count data serving as a leading indicator for future production volumes.

Exploration and production companies are increasingly focusing on high-return, low-breakeven assets, prioritizing inventory depth in proven basins over frontier exploration spending as investor expectations for free cash flow generation remain elevated.

What to Watch

Market participants will be monitoring rig count trends, quarterly earnings guidance from major E&P operators, and any production adjustment announcements from OPEC+ members for signals on near-term supply trajectory.