A 4-Million-Bpd Shadow Oil Highway Is Running Through Hormuz

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that the Strait of Hormuz will become “irrelevant” within two years, and with Gulf oil producers already building their way around it, millions of barrels may prove him right for a short time. Months into the Iran war, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are moving more than 4 million barrels per day through a shadow export network of AIS-dark shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf, keeping millions of barrels flowing through a waterway that has largely…

Market Context

Global crude oil markets remain sensitive to a combination of macroeconomic signals, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments across key producing regions. Brent crude and WTI serve as the primary price benchmarks, with spread movements reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances and refinery demand shifts.

Energy traders and analysts closely monitor inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which releases weekly petroleum status reports that frequently move markets. Rising inventories typically signal demand weakness or oversupply, while draws support price recovery.

What to Watch

Analysts and traders will be watching upcoming EIA inventory reports, OPEC+ output decisions, and macroeconomic indicators — particularly U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and China demand data — for directional cues on crude prices in the near term.